The league’s data-driven look at what is likely to happen next. Editorial opinion lives with Brendan’s Power Rankings; this is arithmetic.
Dumpy UmbrellaBen Spicer117.0
Dumb BlondesNikolas Steacker115.9
Pizza PlanetSeamus Flanigan126.0
Bell-o Darkness My Old FriendEric Peters126.7
The SkrtlesBrendan Dever114.0
Spicey SauceLuke Spicer120.4
Chief KeithKeith Paley Jr.121.9
Run CMCRyan Orzeck119.7
Crab MeatEthan Spicer116.1
The ThrashersGeorge Greeby117.2| Team | Proj. record | Per week | Seed range | Playoffs | Large Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dumb Blondes | 6.6–7.4 | 115.9 | 1–10 | 51% | 7% |
| Crab Meat | 6.9–7.1 | 116.1 | 1–10 | 57% | 9% |
| Dumpy Umbrella | 6.8–7.2 | 117.0 | 1–10 | 56% | 8% |
| Spicey Sauce | 7.2–6.8 | 120.4 | 1–10 | 64% | 11% |
| Pizza Planet | 7.2–6.8 | 126.0 | 1–10 | 65% | 11% |
| Chief Keith | 7.3–6.7 | 121.9 | 1–10 | 66% | 12% |
| The Thrashers | 7.0–7.0 | 117.2 | 1–10 | 61% | 10% |
| Run CMC | 6.8–7.2 | 119.7 | 1–10 | 55% | 8% |
| Bell-o Darkness My Old FriendContender | 7.5–6.5 | 126.7 | 1–10 | 72% | 15% |
| The Skrtles | 6.7–7.3 | 114.0 | 1–10 | 53% | 7% |
A forecast, not a ruling. What is mathematically clinched or eliminated is proved by exhaustion in the Playoff Center, which stays the authority on it.
Forecast to beat The Skrtles by 6.4 — the week's widest gap.
Separated by 0.7 points — inside the noise.
Highest weekly forecast in the league at 126.7 points.
3 starters carrying an injury designation this week.
Beat the going rate at their own draft slots by more than anyone else.
Every figure comes from data already on this site. Each team gets an expected points-per-week number built from ESPN’s projection for its current starting lineup, its completed Season X scores, bench depth and the injury designations on its starters. The Season X draft counts too, but only as value against the slot — whether a team’s picks are projected higher than the players taken around them. Holding an early pick earns nothing on its own. A coach’s career scoring is folded in as context, capped so it can never outweigh the present.
The weighting moves as the season does. Before kickoff there is no Season X scoring to lean on, so projections and the draft carry the forecast; each completed week hands more of it to what actually happened, and the preseason inputs fade out over roughly ten games. A matchup’s win probability comes from the gap between the two expected scores measured against how much team scores actually vary week to week.
No external AI model is called. The weekly matchup forecasts are deterministic — the same inputs always produce the same numbers. The season and playoff outlook probabilities come from a reproducible seeded Monte Carlo simulation, the same one the Playoff Center runs, so the two pages cannot disagree. Seeded means it is repeatable: the same table gives the same odds every time.
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